Viewing archive of Friday, 28 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Major storm periods were observed between 28/0000 to 0300 UTC and
28/0300 to 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
early in the period from approximately 470 km/s to a maximum of 710
km/s around 28/0400 UTC. Wind speed has been slowly declining and
ended the summary period at approximately 570 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 29 July. On 30 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected. On 31 July, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to move into geoeffective position causing unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 073 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 008/010-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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