Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 27 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 901 (N05E00), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced occasional low B-class flares. Considerable decay was observed in the trailing sunspots in this region; however, new negative flux emerged northwest of the leader spot. This location was the source of most of the B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed increased gradually from 330 km/s to near 450 km/s by the end of the period. This increase is associated with a weak high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jul 074
  Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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