Viewing archive of Friday, 30 June 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 30 2232 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Active
Regions 897 (N07E02) and 898 (S06E40) produced minor B-class flares.
Both regions are in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is
elevated due to a high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 01 and 02 July. Active to minor
storm periods are expected on 03 July as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 086 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 005/008-005/005-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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