Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 898
(S06E26) produced occasional B-class flares including a B9.8 at
01/0726Z. Region 897 (N06W12) continues to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels with a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 898.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
Solar wind speed slowly declined, ending the period near 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next
three days. Expect quiet conditions on 02 July. A recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position on 03 July and produce occasional active to minor storm
periods on both 03 and 04 July.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 086 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 005/005-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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