Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E24)
contains the lone sunspot on the visible disk today. No activity of
note was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled conditions.
Solar wind speed has declined to below 380 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 September. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 23 September and produce occasional active to minor
storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 071 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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