Viewing archive of Friday, 25 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 25 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 905
(S08E20), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced
occasional B-class x-ray enhancements, but was otherwise stable this
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 August. A recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position on 27 and 28 August, and produce unsettled to active
conditions with isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 077 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 005/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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