Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. An active region on the east
limb (S10E90) produced a C1 flare at 04/1745 UTC. A very faint
partial halo CME was observed by LASCO starting at approximately
04/0131 UTC associated with a filament eruption (S33W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a single minor storm
period at high latitudes from 1200 - 1500 UTC following a period of
sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days
(05 - 07 May) with a chance for minor to major storm periods on 06
May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and possible
effects from today's partial halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 092 Predicted 05 May-07 May 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 015/020-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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