Viewing archive of Friday, 7 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S15W56) produced
an impulsive C9 flare at 07/0803Z. Region 865 (S11W58) is in decay
and now has 7 spots with a total area of 230 millionths. Region 869
(S12E08) has developed into a Dso class spot group. Region 866
(S05W53) has shown little change since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 865.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 08 April. On 09 and 10 April, unsettled to
active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are
expected due to a high speed stream from a transequatorial coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 095 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 095/090/085 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/008-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
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