Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 877 (S05W41)
produced a B2 flare at 03/0035 UTC. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 May. Active to minor storm
conditions are expected on 05 - 06 May due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 089 Predicted 04 May-06 May 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 03 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/007-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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