Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 11 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 871
(S08E39) produced the largest flare during the period, a C2/1n event
occurring at 11/1839Z. Region 870 (S08E09) produced two C1 flares
today, the first occurring at 11/0200Z and the second at 11/0439Z.
Regions 872 (S09E74) and 873 (S04E48) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 12 and 13 April.
Isolated minor to severe storm conditions are possible on 14 April
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 090 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 005/008-005/010-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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