Viewing archive of Monday, 8 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 08 2206 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 882
(S12W45) continues in a growth phase, and increased in both area and
magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in Region 882.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 500 - 550
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 09 May. A large recurrent coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 May. Active
periods are expected on 10 May, with minor to major storm periods
possible on 11 May.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 085 Predicted 09 May-11 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 08 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/008-008/012-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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