Viewing archive of Monday, 10 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 870
(S08E21) produced a B8 flare at 10/1934Z. New Region 871 (S08E52)
was also numbered today. A CME observed off the west limb at
09/2230Z is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
high speed solar wind stream that began late on 08 April remains in
effect. Solar wind speed is at 600 km/s, but is in decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
11 April.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 089 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 027/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/020-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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