Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 12 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 873 (S04E35) has
developed in complexity and is now a Dai class spot group. All
other regions have remained quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 13 April. Unsettled to active
conditions with possible periods of minor storming are expected on
14 April, increasing to mostly active with possible minor to major
storming on 15 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 081 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 005/010-015/025-020/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
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