Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
843 produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 x-ray flare which
occurred at 28/1125Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent trans-equatorial high speed coronal hole stream was
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods possible through 29 December. A return
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 30 and 31 December as
the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 089 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 012/020-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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