Viewing archive of Monday, 25 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. New Region
756 (S06E68) is rotating into view on the southeast limb. Although
this region's close proximity to the limb is hindering the analysis,
it does appear to be a moderate size sunspot group, with initial
measurements of over 400 millionths in white light area. The CME
activity on 22 April may have been associated with this region;
however, activity in the past 48 hours was limited to occasional
B-class flares. No other activity of note occurred this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 756 has the potential to produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The weak high speed stream in progress
since 23 April is declining. Solar wind speed ended the period at
around 480 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 086 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 090/100/100 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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