Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 22 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 766
(N15E62) has fully rotated onto the visible disk and it appears to
be a DAO beta spot group. Region 767 (S07E67) has also fully
rotated onto the visible disk and it appears to be a DAO beta spot
group. Both of these regions were relatively quiet during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to active levels. A
brief period of minor storming was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer between 22/0000 and 0300Z. Several hours of a
sustained southward Bz preceded the storming conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be possible with periods of sustained
southward Bz throughout the interval at the higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 082 Predicted 23 May-25 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 22 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 004/010-008/012-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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