Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 24 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
currently no sunspots on the visible disk. Occasional B-class flares
were associated with activity in a new region rotating on the east
limb near S05. This region was the likely source of CME activity on
22 April.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The new region rotating on the southeast limb may
elevate activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak recurrent coronal hole high speed stream continues.
Solar wind speed is elevated to near 550 km/s, but the IMF Bz is
weak and predominantly northward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 25
April. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 26 and 27 April as the
current high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 082 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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