Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 26 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
756 (S06E55) appears to be a magnetically complex beta-delta sunspot
group. There were several C-class flares produced from this region
during the period, the largest was an impulsive C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 26/0441Z. A disappearing filament was observed starting
late yesterday and continued into the early part of the interval.
This event resulted in a partial halo CME which was first observed
in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/2306Z. There is a chance
this CME may become geoeffective and produce a weak glancing blow as
it passes the Earth. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. The
partial halo CME seen today on the southwest limb may result in
isolated periods of active conditions on 29 April.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 091 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 005/008-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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