Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 27 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
756 (S06E42) was limited to the production of low level B-class
flares during the period. Sunspot area underwent a rapid increase
today with most the of growth being attributed to the southern delta
structure. Further magnetic analysis indicates that there may be a
delta structure just north of center in the trailing portion of the
large spot. Plage fluctuations and surging have been reported
throughout the period. Region 755 (S13W54) had several umbra
re-emerge today and remains simply structured. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 756 has the capability of producing an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a slight
chance that the partial halo CME observed on 25-26 April might
produce isolated active conditions on 29 April.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 095 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 003/008-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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