Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 28 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 756
(S06E29) produced a C3 x-ray event that occurred at 28/0236Z. White
light analysis indicates that the sunspot area coverage is now at
1030 millionths. Magnetic analysis shows a solid delta structure
seen as the appendage in the southern portion of the large spot. A
second weaker delta structure is seen near the central trailing
portion of the large spot. A newly formed DAO beta spot group was
numbered as Region 757 (S05E03) today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 756 has the potential of producing an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 29 and 30 April.
Active to minor storm conditions are possible on 01 May due to the
onset of a recurrent high speed coronal stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 098 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 004/008-004/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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