Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Activity was limited to occasional B-class activity this period. Several new spots emerged in Region 700 (N05W27), but other than occasional brightness fluctuations, the region was quiet. No other significant activity or changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated low C-class activity is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high latitude active periods. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated, ranging from 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910Z is nearing an end. The current proton flux is ranging from 5 to 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The greater than 2 MeV proton event in progress since 07 November is expected to end today.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 096
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  023/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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