Viewing archive of Friday, 10 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only a few small and
simple sunspot groups populate the visible disk and no activity of
note was observed. New Region 711 (N13W20) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A CME associated
with a long duration C2 flare and filament eruption on 08 December
is expected to create occasional storm periods on 11 and 12
December. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 December.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 085 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 020/020-030/030-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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