Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 710 (S07E33) at 09/0012Z. Limited LASCO imagery revealed
what is likely a full halo CME associated with yesterday's long
duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption at 08/1959Z. No other
activity of note occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a low C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 09/0900 - 1200Z. A sustained period of southward Bz
produced the active conditions. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 10 December. Transient flow associated
with the long duration C2 flare and CME on 09 December is expected
to arrive on 11 December. Expect active to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods on 11 and 12 December. A return to
quiet to occasional active levels are expected by the end of the
three-day period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 087 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-020/020-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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