Viewing archive of Friday, 12 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696
(N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A
weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region
699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was
not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to
the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from
550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half
of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The
proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z.
The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging
between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually
decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 097 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 022/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 030/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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