Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed from Region 682 (S14E24). No significant changes were
observed in this region, which continues to exhibit some minor
magnetic complexity. B-class flares were also observed from an
active region rotating into view on the east limb near S04. No other
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 16/0000 - 0300Z. Very stable solar wind
conditions existed through the latter half of the period with solar
wind speed near 350 km/s and the IMF Bz near zero. The greater than
2 Mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been at high levels
since midday on 14 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible
on 18 and 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 092 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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