Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels with
occasional B-class flares. Region 682 (S14E10) has shown some decay
in white light area coverage, but still maintains minor magnetic
complexity. New Region 683 (S09E22) emerged as a C type group early
in the period. New Region 684 (S04E65) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated minor C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Very stable solar wind conditions
persisted through the period. Solar wind speed declined to near 300
km/s and IMF Bz remains near zero. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high, and has been at high levels
since 14 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 092 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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