Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 682 (S14E37), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced several B-class
flares. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours. It
currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity with approximately 250
millionths of white light area coverage. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 has potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began
the period near 540 km/s, but gradually declined to 450 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 18 Oct due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 089 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 012/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/010-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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