Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Flare
production was limited to very minor impulsive B-class event
activity again today. Region 663 (N10W41) showed little change
during the period and remains a magnetically simplistic beta
complex. Region 664 (S11W73) went unchanged and continues to
exhibit Hsx alpha spot group characteristics. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. The active spotted regions are magnetically simple
with limited potential for significant flare production being
evident.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
There was an isolated active period that occurred between 28/0600
and 0900Z in response to southward Bz oscillations in the
interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 087 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 006/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 004/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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