Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares
today with continued decay to the groups total spot area. Region
655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight
increase in spot cluster area measurements. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 655 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock
passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
01/0130Z. This transient is believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652
while it was exiting the west limb. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time
allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 083 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 005/008-005/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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