Viewing archive of Monday, 2 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low to low levels.
There was an isolated C3.9 X-ray event on 02 Aug at 1754Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 05 Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 085 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 008/008-005/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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