Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
observed from the SOHO/LASCO imagery late on 05 July which appears
to be a backside event. There was also a Type II radio sweep with a
shock speed of 424 km/s that may be associated with this CME. The
event could likely be from old Region 635 (L=052). This region was
a moderately complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration when it
rotated off the solar disk on 28 June. A long duration B1 flare was
observed at 06/1320 UTC which was associated with a CME off the west
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 079 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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