Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted in current active regions on the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active on 9 June at 1200Z. The interplanetary
magnetic field has been at slightly negative polarity for extended
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled for the remainder of 9 June.
The possible glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection may elevate
the geomagnetic field to active levels with a very slight chance for
isolated minor storming on 10 June, returning to quiet to active
levels for 11 June.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 085 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 012/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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