Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Low level B-class
flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The largest event
was a B4/Sf at 07/1719 UTC from Region 641 (N15E12), which is now a
spotless region. The event was reported in H-alpha imagery as a
parallel ribbon flare with a small disappearing filament along the
regions inversion line. Several CME's were observed from the
SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period, none of which seem to be Earth
directed. A full halo CME was first observed in C2 at 06/2006 UTC.
All indications are that this was a backside event. This is the
second backside full halo event reported in the past 48 hours. A
new region was numbered today as Region 642 (S08E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 079 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/010-005/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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