Viewing archive of Friday, 24 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
673 (S13W44) produced several minor B-class flares. The largest was
a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 24/0245Z. This region exhibits a
simple beta class magnetic structure and is the only spotted active
region reported today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 673 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 089 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 004/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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