Viewing archive of Monday, 14 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Infrequent C-class activity
occurred, from Region 634 (N13E60) and newly numbered Region 635
(S08E70). These two active centers dominate an otherwise dull
visible disk. Region 634 is 350 millionths in white light area. The
limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with some chance of an isolated M-class flare from either Region 634
or 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Gusts of fast solar wind
reached 550 km/s as a high speed stream began to affect the
magnetosphere midway through the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Coronal
hole effects are anticipated to linger through 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 100 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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