Viewing archive of Monday, 14 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Infrequent C-class activity occurred, from Region 634 (N13E60) and newly numbered Region 635 (S08E70). These two active centers dominate an otherwise dull visible disk. Region 634 is 350 millionths in white light area. The limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, with some chance of an isolated M-class flare from either Region 634 or 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Gusts of fast solar wind reached 550 km/s as a high speed stream began to affect the magnetosphere midway through the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Coronal hole effects are anticipated to linger through 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 100
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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