Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 634 (N11E48) produced a
C1/1f flare at 15/2001Z. Region 634 is a moderately complex sunspot
group covering 370 millionths of white light area. Region 635
(S10E65) has rotated into view and also exhibits a moderately
complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration with almost 400 millionths
of white light area coverage. These regions were the likely source
for a series of strong CMEs that originated from behind the west
limb during the first week of June. A CME observed off the southwest
limb at approximately 0800Z, originated from behind the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Regions 634
and 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Periods of southward IMF Bz associated with weak transient flow
created the most disturbed periods. Solar wind speed gradually
increased during the period associated with a southern coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated high-latitude minor storm
periods are possible through 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 109 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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