Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C2 flare at 0434 UTC on
the east limb near S08. The event was associated with a limb CME
with velocity of about 680 km/s, but did not have an
earthward-directed component. The two dominant regions on the disk
continue to be 634 (N12E33) and 635 (S10E51). Both have respectable
area and are growing slowly but were relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 634 or from Region 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
unsettled to active interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind data
showed a decreasing trend in velocity with values around 450 km/s at
forecast issue time, apparently indicating the end of the high speed
wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 112 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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