Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
event during the past 24 hours, a C1/Sf at 0238 UTC from Region 634
(N12E20). Regions 634 and 635 (S11E38) continue to dominate the disk
with their size and are growing slowly, but remain relatively
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from either Region 634 or Region 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with some isolated periods of
unsettled levels. The solar wind velocity remains slightly elevated
(450-550 km/s) but contains only weak magnetic fields (mostly
between -3 nT to +3 nT).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 111 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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