Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from the east limb near SE12. This is in the vicinity of old Region
635 (S11, L=055). Sunspots have not yet rotated into view. New
Regions 646 (N13W33) and 647 (S14E61) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the possibility of an M-class flare from the new region
rotating around the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind data
suggests the minor influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 104 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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