Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. New Region 634 (N12E73)
produced an M1 flare at 13/1156 UTC as well as smaller B and C-class
flares during the past 24 hours. The region is rotating into view as
a small D-type sunspot group. Another new active region is rotating
onto the disk near southeast 08. Sunspots are not yet visible but
GOES SXI has observed B-class flares from this area. Other disk
regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Another small M-class flare is possible in Region 634.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active under
the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 095 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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