Viewing archive of Monday, 5 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 588 (S15E25)
produced numerous B-class flares during the period, and the region
produced an M1.7/1f flare at 05/0555 UTC. A Type II radio sweep
(with a speed of 836 km/s) was observed shortly after the M1.7
flare, and LASCO imagery indicated a partial-halo CME emerging from
the southeast limb at 0606 UTC with a plane-of-sky speed of
approximately 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be directed
towards Earth, but it may provide a glancing blow to the geomagnetic
field. Region 588 has developed a north-south orientation and
increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. New
Region 589 (N10E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 588 and 587 (S14W31) may produce C- and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. ACE
data indicate that Earth's geomagnetic field came under the
influence of a corotating interaction region late on 4 November.
Solar wind speed at ACE began to steadily increase to around 450
km/s at the end of the period, possibly indicating the beginning
effects of a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor storm
conditions on days one and two (6-7 November) from the effects of
the coronal hole. Activity should subside on day three (8 November)
to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 109 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 018/020-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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