Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S10E38) has
produced several low C-class flares. The region has indicated some
weak polarity intermixing in the past twenty-four hours but remains
a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storm
conditions possible for 05-07 January. This is due to the solar
wind high speed stream continuing through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 119 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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