Viewing archive of Monday, 5 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The GOES x-ray
imager observed a long duration M6 flare from Region 536 (S11E25) at
05/0345 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Again this
region has exceeded 900 millionths of white light area coverage and
has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 536 remains capable of producing an M-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions for 06-08 January. This is due to the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Additionally,
isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible on 07-08
January as a result of the M6 event at 05/0345 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 123 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 013/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 020/025-025/030-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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