Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 549 (N13E70)
continued to produce B and C-class flares. The largest flare was a
C4 at 31/0622 UTC. This region is still close to the limb but
appears to be a D-type sunspot group of moderate size. New Region
498 (N06E30) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected in Region 549. There is a
chance of a small M-class flare in this region as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of
isolated minor storm periods as the coronal hole induced disturbance
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 094 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 019/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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