Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 549 (N13E70) continued to produce B and C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4 at 31/0622 UTC. This region is still close to the limb but appears to be a D-type sunspot group of moderate size. New Region 498 (N06E30) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional small flares are expected in Region 549. There is a chance of a small M-class flare in this region as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods as the coronal hole induced disturbance continues.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 094
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  019/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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