Viewing archive of Friday, 30 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small B and C-class x-ray flares have occurred from an unnumbered region just beyond the east limb near NE13. No spots are yet visible but enhancements in GOES SXI images mark the location where the region is expected to rotate into view. New Region 547 (S09E14) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional small flares are expected from the new region rotating around the east limb at NE13.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind information from the NASA ACE spacecraft suggest that the geomagnetic field is under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 093
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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