Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12E51)
continues to be the largest of the three spotted regions on the
visible solar disk. This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 536 could produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s with a southward Bz of -5
to -10 nt during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately active to minor storm conditions for
04-06 January due to the effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 116 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 025/030-020/030-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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