Viewing archive of Friday, 2 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S11E63) has
produced several C-class flares during the last twenty-four hours.
This region continues to grow and is currently 770 millionths of
white light coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 03 January. Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for 04-05 January with activity due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 117 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/015-025/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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