Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62) produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at 05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324 and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500 km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M35%25%30%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 137
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  013/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%35%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%35%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.

All times in UTC

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