Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 137 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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