Viewing archive of Friday, 2 May 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 345 (S17W34) produced a long duration M1/Sf flare at 0308Z. This region has developed in magnetic complexity and is now a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 349 (S13W21) is still the largest region on the disk and has remained relatively stable over the past twenty-four hours. Region 344(N15W67) continues its gradual decay and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 345 and 349 have the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Elevated solar wind speed combined with a period of southward Bz resulted in one period of isolated major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. On day one, active conditions are expected during local nighttime hours and the solar wind velocity is expected to gradually decline. Isolated active conditions are possible on day three as another coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
Class M60%60%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 May 144
  Predicted   03 May-05 May  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        02 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  029/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 May  023/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  015/015-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%40%
Minor storm25%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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