Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed
with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 149 Predicted 02 May-04 May 145/140/130 90 Day Mean 01 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 034/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 035/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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